The recent damage caused to subsea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea has resulted in a stronger focus on the threat to subsea and energy infrastructure on the Norwegian shelf. Vulnerabilities linked to subsea infrastructure, along with Russia’s investments in the capability to sabotage such infrastructure, characterise the threat picture for the sector.
The threat of sabotage by Russia in order to weaken support for Ukraine could include attacks on critical infrastructure such as pipelines, cables, facilities and installations.
Enterprises in the petroleum sector face a sustained elevated risk linked to events. The petroleum sector is a highly digitalised industry with complex supply chains. Supply chain risk and the greater use of artificial intelligence (AI) by threat actors are pivotal in the threat picture.
It is important to continue instigating additional measures to reduce the risk and consequences of physical or digital sabotage. Norway is a key player in safeguarding oil and gas supplies to Europe by maintaining a high level of regularity in the supply chain.
The reports from NSM, PST and NIS underline the need to maintain a high level of preparedness, security and ICT security in the petroleum sector in the face of the complex threat picture facing the industry. In their reports, NSM, PST, and NIS stress the increased likelihood of sabotage via proxy actors, the greater use of AI, and the risk of multiple cyberattacks.
See also: The threat assessments for this year have been presented (regjeringa.no)
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National Security Authority (NSM)
NSM is Norway’s agency for national preventive security. The authority provides advice and carries out supervision and other control activities on both the civilian and military sides linked to the safeguarding of information, systems, assets and infrastructure of national importance. NSM also has a national responsibility to uncover, report and coordinate the response to major ICT attacks.
The “Risk” report is NSM’s annual assessment of the risk picture for national security. In the report, NSM assesses how vulnerabilities in Norwegian enterprises and social functions impact on the risk picture that has been presented by NIS and PST.
Read the report: Risiko 2025: Eit sikkert Noreg i ei usikker verd (NSM’s website, in Norwegian)
Norwegian Police Security Service (PST)
PST is Norway’s national domestic intelligence and security service and is subordinate to the Ministry of Justice and Public Security. PST is therefore responsible for investigating serious crimes that threaten national security.
PST identifies and assesses threats linked to intelligence, sabotage, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, terrorism and extremism. These assessments are used in the formulation of policies and support political decision-making processes.
PST’s annual threat assessment forms part of the service’s open communication with society and sets out anticipated developments in the threat picture.
Read the report: National Threat Assessment 2025 (PST’s website, in Norwegian)
Norwegian Intelligence Service (NIS)
NIS is Norway’s foreign intelligence service. Although the service reports to the Norwegian Chief of Defence, its work covers both civilian and military matters.
The main tasks of NIS are to warn of external threats to Norway, support the Norwegian Armed Forces and defence alliances that Norway is part of, and assist in political decision-making processes by providing information of significance to Norwegian foreign, security and defence policy.
In the annual threat assessment ‘FOCUS’, NIS presents its analysis of the current situation and anticipated developments within thematic and geographic areas considered particularly relevant to Norwegian security and national interests.
Read the report: Focus 2025: The Norwegian Intelligence Service’s assessment of current security challenges (NIS’s website, in Norwegian)