Lasting choices

The Norwegian petroleum industry is facing demanding strategic decisions. Stricter climate commitments and geopolitical unrest are rendering long-term decisions on infrastructure and maintenance increasingly important. What does this mean for lifetime, modifications and future developments on the Norwegian continental shelf?

Experience from over fifty years of oil and gas production on the NCS shows that the companies have been adept at finding new resources and improving recovery. Facilities that are well maintained and dimensioned for a long lifetime can be utilised for longer than planned, for example by connecting new discoveries to existing infrastructure.

Long term planning must therefore consider that today’s facilities may adopt new roles in the future.

“The companies must assume that the industry will continue to operate for a long time to come. They must think long-term both when designing for the future and when operating today’s facilities,” says Finn Carlsen, director of professional competence at Havtil.

He believes that a clear framework and belief in a long lifetime are crucial for investments on the NCS to provide lasting value in terms of safety, resource utilisation and future flexibility.

Building for the future requires more than technology. It requires a clear framework and a belief in longevity.

Lifetime

When planning new facilities, the starting point is production volumes and production lifetime. Troll A is a prime example. The main structure is dimensioned for 70 years of operation, because the reservoir contains large volumes of gas and is linked to long-term agreements with Europe. Such assessments provide a concrete basis for the choice of materials, dimensions and maintenance programmes.

In many cases, however, it is not just a single reservoir that determines a facility’s lifetime and function. Existing infrastructure on the shelf often proves to have value beyond the production of the original resource for which it was built. Today, infrastructure on the NCS is increasingly used to produce from new discoveries that are connected to existing facilities – so-called tie-backs.

“This requires that facilities are maintained and modified with a perspective that extends beyond the individual field. Facilities must be planned and operated with future production in mind, not just current needs,” says Carlsen.

“Historically, it has paid off to build by incorporating such margins. Facilities with good conditions offer a double benefit: The safety level is maintained, and the infrastructure can be utilised far beyond the original plan,” he explains.

“At the same time, we see that the more mature the NCS becomes, the more demanding these assessments become.”

Margins

Tighter frameworks and increased cost pressure make it challenging to find the right balance between solid technical quality and cost-effective operations. Over the years, technological developments have provided the industry with a better understanding of what is needed to ensure a long service life.

At the same time, the requirement to reduce costs remains stringent. New digital tools have played an important role in the development of more precise calculations. Whilst uncertainty previously had to be factored in, new technology provides a better basis for adjusting traditional safety margins.

However, Carlsen warns against excessive streamlining:

“Optimisation is basically positive. It reduces costs and increases profitability. However, removing too many margins can weaken robustness. The installation will consequently deal sub-optimally with unforeseen events and lifetime extensions.”

The director of prfessional competence emphasizes that the choices the industry makes today on design, maintenance and efficiency will shape opportunities for decades to come.

“Building for the future requires more than technology. It requires a clear framework and a belief in longevity.”

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